There is reason to believe transformational change is possible. Building retrofits are now constrained by existing policy and market environments. Energy-efficiency programs are evaluated using restrictive and static cost-benefit analyses, focused on short-term results. Under this market structure, supply chains are fragmented and building owners must navigate a confusing array of contractors.

However, this is only one model. We can reshape retrofit markets and policies to meet a net-zero emissions goal. The most prominent example is energiesprong in the Netherlands, which co-ordinates large-scale retrofits of affordable housing to spur supply chain innovations, such as prefabricated walls and all-in-one HVAC systems.

Retrofitting our buildings for climate change must coincide with a strategy to trigger economies of scale and learning. We could see work crews specialized in tasks like air sealing; specialized equipment like small-scale cranes and diggers; better application of technologies like software, drones & 3D printing to the retrofit space; and increased understanding of ways to enhance customer value, guarantee performance, and finance energy savings.

If we can dramatically accelerate retrofits, we will eliminate fossil fuel use in buildings while producing societal benefits, such as improved health, reduced energy poverty, and support for reconciliation with Indigenous peoples through high-quality housing.

Widespread building retrofits can also enable larger economy-wide decarbonization. There is the potential to free up enough electricity to supply 10 million electric vehicles even as we electrify all buildings. This is because building envelope upgrades reduce electric heating demands, and many Canadian buildings use less-efficient electric heating systems that can be replaced by heat pumps.