Cities need to plan their future design in new ways. To illustrate, the recent downgrading of the City of Vancouver as "the world's most livable city" by The Economist spurred this commentary:
'The dark side of Vancouver's livability agenda is rearing its head.
The cost of land and housing have skyrocketed, leaving a very different picture of "living first downtowns." At the same time as they grow in popularity, support and enthusiasm for higher density neighbourhoods and attached housing is tempered by growing negative associations. These negative issues include: lack of affordability, polarizing class dynamics, crowding, loneliness, social isolation, dysfunction, drug abuse, lack of neighbourliness and community life. There is also concern about risks to cities in the future, from deteriorating air quality (notably, from forest fires) to flooding and other climate change-related risks.' ref:7
The concentration of people in cities can create economic agglomeration or urban success. According the World Bank ref:8, the benefit of being around other people leads to scale improvements in wages, productivity and innovation. On the other hand, the physical growth of cities can be expensive, unsustainable, and unattractive. The evolution of telecommuting and flexible work is an example of counter-strategies to the growth of urban environments. Other counter-strategies include making our cities more pedestrian-focused, condensed, greener.
Planning the growth of cities has its challenges. The concept of shopping areas set apart from residential districts increases vehicular use. Downtowns have suffered from hollowing and increased crime. Some areas previously used for industrial purposes are now surrounded with residential areas. Since we cannot rebuild cities, we need to think innovatively about their future development. Geographical expansion (pushing to suburbs) is costly in service provision (particularly in North America where properties are spaced apart and lack density). It is risky, in view of market changes (the life span of organizations is getting shorter and the use of commercial space is changing). And geographical expansion increases demand for travel, with associated mobility and environmental costs. Vertical expansion can create concrete jungles and a myriad of social issues. Problems of growth require different solutions - once again, water infrastructure is an engineering problem and needs investment to supply what is required; but road congestion does not benefit from the build-up of additional roads. It requires other strategies, including changes to culture.
The growth of cities has created a number of socio-cultural impacts that need to be taken into consideration:
Economic development needs to move in new directions. Development is still thought of in conventional terms: attract as many jobs as we can, in as large a commercial or industrial space as we can. But these are short-term and unsustainable practices. Organizations do not live as long as they use to; the space that they create today may not be suitable for the next generation of businesses. New ideas around flexible work environments will continue to decrease the need for commercial space, and employers are seizing opportunities to save on capital costs by locating in a shared office environment.
Some cities are moving toward "circular economies" as an economic development strategy. (A circular economy looks beyond the "take-make-dispose" extractive industrial model. It redefines growth in terms of positive society-wide benefits. ref:9) Organizations such as the World Economic Forum ref:10 are helping the transition by providing ideas around blended financing models, enabling policy frameworks, and strategies to bring private and public sector organizations to collaborate around circular economy initiatives.
Many other opportunities are available for thinking differently about how we manage economic development. For example, some cities are thinking about:
Environmental impacts and contributions to global warming are not being efficiently managed. Mobility is a sizeable contributor to global warming. Autonomous vehicles could change the way that we think about ownership and shared use and ultimately develop more efficient practices to travel to work. But changing our driving culture presents significant challenges, and these are linked to the design and economic development structures discussed above. Commercial buildings add to the carbon footprint. Efficient use of energy and water contribute to carbon footprint. Re-use and minimum packaging concepts contribute to the carbon footprint. These challenges can be reduced if we develop an engagement strategy and steps for significant cultural change.