You're running late. If you get on the subway, you'll be between 10 and 15 minutes late. Or you could take a taxi.

If you're just visiting a friend, an apologetic text message will do. If it's an important business meeting, the taxi sounds more appealing. But that's a trick!

When we try to optimise for a result (time) by choosing lesser-known options, we tend to underestimate the variability they introduce. Sure, the taxi will probably get you there a bit sooner, but you'll regret the decision when you inenvitably get caught up in traffic and end up 30 minutes late.

And when you finally send that text message, you'll realise it wasn't so bad.

When it's crunch time, consider reducing variables and managing a minimised, but predictable, downside.