Describe The Iterative Process For Deciding The Top 3 Assumptions (To Be Repeated For Each Section)

Explain the process of going from multiple assumptions developed individually to an agreed set of "top three riskiest assumptions" for each section of the business model canvas on the wall:

  • Individually: you will do 3-5 minute sprints of assumption generation for each section, generating as many potential assumptions as possible (write these onto the post it notes)
  • Transfer all post it notes to the wall - preferably in a "holding area" next to the canvas itself
  • Discuss each assumption, letting the person that wrote it out initially, to describe their idea and how it relates to or differs from the other ideas they see on the wall
  • The business idea owner (you) should absolutely NOT (not under any circumstances) try to defend your idea or suggest you already have this or that assumption covered. Partly because we want to ensure the volunteers that are helping you with this exercise don't feel constrained on their ability to contribute, and partly as is often the case, you may not actually have it covered, even if your first gut reaction is that you have an assumption covered!
  • Where ideas essentially mean the same thing, put the post it notes on top of each other.
  • If necessary rewrite the message on a post it note to make it clearer or collate similar points.
  • Don't be afraid of throwing away post it notes that become redundant through this discussion.
  • You will probably have too many post it notes and now need to prioritize these down to 3 main "risky assumptions" for each section of the canvas, and when you're down to 3 riskiest assumptions, you can then repeat this exercise for the next section of the canvas.
  • If you're uncertain how to reduce down to the 3 "riskiest assumptions" then make a two by two matrix, where the:
    • horizontal axis is from Low (left) to High (right) uncertainty of that assumption. (Think of a high uncertainty as high probability that your assumption is wrong)
    • vertical axis represents Low (bottom) to High (top) Impact if that assumptions was to be wrong (i.e. if your assumption is wrong how much will it impact your business or the value of the business you hope to build.