Scenario planning, also known as scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that is used to make flexible long-term plans. It is a way of thinking about and organizing possible futures in order to make better decisions in the present. Scenario planning involves creating a number of possible future scenarios, or stories, that take into account a range of factors that could affect the future. These scenarios are then used to help organizations plan for and respond to a range of potential outcomes. By considering different possible futures, scenario planning can help organizations make more informed decisions, reduce uncertainty, and be better prepared for whatever the future may hold.

The origins of scenario planning can be traced back to the work of Royal Dutch Shell, a global energy company, in the 1960s and 1970s. Shell was looking for a way to make better long-term decisions in a world that was becoming increasingly complex and uncertain. The company developed a methodology for creating and using scenarios that it called "Shell Scenarios." This methodology was later refined and expanded upon by a number of other organizations and individuals. Today, scenario planning is used by a wide range of organizations in a variety of industries, including business, government, and the military.