Optionality

"Optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny)."

Nassim Taleb

For a great description on preserving optionality check out fs.blog:

How do we prepare for a world that often changes drastically and rapidly? We can preserve our optionality.We don't often get the advice to keep our options open. Instead, we're told to specialize by investing huge hours in our passion so we can be successful in a niche.The problem is, it's bad advice. We live in a world that's constantly changing, and if we can't respond effectively to those changes, we become redundant, frustrated, and useless.

Instead of focusing on becoming great at one thing, there is another, counterintuitive strategy that will get us further: preserving optionality. The more options we have, the better suited we are to deal with unpredictability and uncertainty. We can stay calm when others panic because we have choices.Optionality refers to the act of keeping as many options open as possible. Preserving optionality means avoiding limiting choices or dependencies. It means staying open to opportunities and always

having a backup plan.

An option is usually defined as something we have the freedom to choose. That's a fairly broad definition. In the context of a strategy, it must also have a limited downside and an open-ended upside. Betting in a casino is not an option, for example-the upside is known. Losses and gains are both constrained. What about betting on a new tech startup? That's an option-the upside is theoretically unlimited; the losses are limited to the amount you invest.

Options present themselves all the time, but life-altering ones often come up during times of great change. These options are the ones we have the hardest time capitalizing on. If we've specialized too much, change is a threat, not an opportunity. Thus, if we aren't certain where the opportunities are going to be (and we never are), then we need to make choices to keep our options open.

Baron Rothschild is often quoted as having said that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." That's a misquote, however. What he actually said was "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." Rothschild recognized that those are the times when new options emerge. That's when many investors make their fortunes and when entrepreneurs innovate. Rothschild saw opportunity in chaos. He made a fortune buying during the panic after the Battle of Waterloo.

When we occupy a small niche, we sacrifice optionality. That means less freedom and greater dependency. No one can predict the future-not even experts-so isn't it a good idea to have as many avenues open as possible?