Anticipated Development

3.1 Requirement of the Act

Chapter 3 provides the methodology for calculating a D.C. as per the D.C.A. Figure 3-1 presents this methodology graphically. It is noted in the first box of the schematic that in order to determine the D.C. that may be imposed, it is a requirement of Section 5 (1) of the D.C.A. that "the anticipated amount, type and location of development, for which development charges can be imposed, must be estimated."

The growth forecast contained in this chapter (with supplemental tables in Appendix A) provides for the anticipated development for which the Town of Perth will be required to provide services, over a 10-year (mid-2019 to mid-2029) and a longer-term (mid-2019 to mid-2038) time horizon.

3.2 Basis of Population, Household and Non-Residential Gross Floor Area Forecast

The D.C. growth forecast has been derived by Watson. In preparing the growth forecast, the following information sources were consulted to assess the residential and non-residential development potential for the Town of Perth over the forecast period, including:

  • Lanark County Sustainable Communities Official Plan (Adopted June 27, 2012);
  • Official Plan Amendment #16 to the Town of Perth Official Plan (January 11, 2019);
  • 2006, 2011 and 2016 population, household, and employment Census data;
  • Historical residential and non-residential building permit data over the 2009 to 2018 period;
  • Residential supply opportunities as provided by the Town of Perth; and Discussions with Town staff regarding anticipated residential and non-residential development in the Town of Perth.

Summary of Growth Forecast

A detailed analysis of the residential and non-residential growth forecasts is provided in Appendix A and the methodology employed is illustrated in Figure 3-1. The discussion provided herein summarizes the anticipated growth for the Town and describes the basis for the forecast. The results of the residential growth forecast analysis are summarized in Table 3-1 below, and Schedule 1 in Appendix A.

As identified in Table 3-1 and Appendix A, Schedule 1, the Town's population is anticipated to reach approximately 7,120 by mid-2029 and 8,090 by 2038, resulting in an increase of approximately 1,030 and 1,990 persons, respectively, over the 10-year and longer-term forecast periods.