3.6 Financial Statements And Projections

VI. Financial Statements and Projections (pro forma statements)

A. Projected revenues, operating costs, and net income
B. Capital requirements, potential and actual sources of equity, equity accumulation schedule, investment schedule (land, plant, equipment, human resources, etc.)
C. Pro forma cash flow statement
D. Income, balance sheet, and sources and uses of funds statements
E. Equity accumulation plan and financial ratio analysis
F. Financial plan summary (description of how it will all fit together)

Possible economic outcomes are a prominent part of a feasibility study and are critical in the overall assessment of a project. Therefore, it is extremely important to do a thorough and careful job with the financials. Financial projections are usually made for 3 years. Cash flow statements should be monthly, while income statements and balance sheets should be monthly or quarterly for the first year and then annual for the second and third years.

Financial statements and projections stem from valid and objective assumptions. Financial assumptions, such as capital requirements, equity needs, prices, human resources needed, and other factors, will come into play here. Because the economics of the project are so important to project assessment, assumptions must be in line with the reality of the situation and should not be overly optimistic or simplistic. Assumptions such as price forecasts/projections should be based on solid facts, such as historical prices and changes that have occurred in the industry which may affect the outlook. The sources for the facts and the rationale for key assumptions should be well documented either in the report body or in an appendix.

Most feasibility studies begin with pro forma cash flow statements based on the assumptions and other data collected about the project, such as equity collected, product volume, purchases, sales, and expenses, for example. Besides equity, revenue streams and operating costs, the pro forma statements must include repayment and interest on potential short-term and long-term debt and/or other investments in the project. The cash flow statements (usually done on a monthly basis) must clearly show when capital is introduced and when it is repaid. This is important for indicating the project's repayment capacity, a critical consideration for a lender or investor. For a sample pro forma cash flow statement, see Appendix E.

Also included in this section are income statements, balance sheets, and sources and uses of funds statements (or statements of cash flows). These pro forma statements provide important information beyond the cash flow analysis. The plan for accumulating needed member equity adds even more information by providing dates, sources, and amounts of equity expected (this information will be likely obtained from a potential member survey). Another useful analysis to include is a ratio analysis where ratios are developed from the pro forma statements. For example, current ratios, debt ratios, assets turnover, return on net worth, return on investment, return on sales, etc., should be formulated and compared during the projected years. For sample pro forma operating, balance sheet, and ratio statements, see Appendices F, G, and H, respectively.

In the financial analysis, the study should show the impact of varying key project assumptions. This controlled variation, called sensitivity analysis, permits planners to view which project elements are the most susceptible to positive and negative changes. For example, what impact does a 10-percent reduction in sales volume have on net margins?

The sensitivity analyses conducted should then be studied, and those that are potentially realistic should be developed into specific scenarios, which would involve looking at all aspects of how the proposed possible changes would affect the project. Both "worst-case" possibilities and optimistic scenarios should be created for comparison purposes. A comparison table and discussion should be developed so that it's easy to assess the differences between scenarios.

The financial section should summarize all the findings of the financial analyses and provide an overall assessment of the financial and economic implications of the project. The financial impacts at both the cooperative and member level should be detailed.